OK, no more spinning and bullshit from me. This is what I think will happen.
New Hampshire. Gone.
South Carolina. Gone.
Nevada. If the Culinary Workers endorse Obama, Gone.
The Clinton machine will go into full out panic mode after losing New Hampshire. Expect some "pivot" to the media knowing they have heard the voters and will enact big changes to turn around the sinking Titanic. If they are smart, they will fire Mark Penn on the spot and bring in fresh blood. That will show they are serious about changing the direction and message of their campaign. They are already starting to be more authentic. Hillary is changing to much shorter stump speeches and answering lots and lots of questions at every turn.
They will then try to emulate Mondale's 1984 strategy of grinding down Gary Hart by calling into question Obama's experience at every turn. Where's the beef?
Hillary is who she is. She is running on experience and this agent of change business isn't working. She has to differentiate herself with Obama rather than clearly pander to his supporters. It's transparent and not working. Hillary has to be Hillary and let the voters make their judgments. They will hope for some blowback when people really think about whether they are ready to nominate a black man with a muslim surname with 2 years national political experience for the nomination against a McCain or Giuliani. They will keep pounding on the experience issue, again, and again. The Feb. 5th states are very different than Iowa and New Hampshire. There are many closed primaries. No indies allowed. No changing registration on the day of the election. Democrats will be selecting the nominee. No independents and republicans to muck things up. Obama won democrats by only 1% over Hillary in Iowa. I expect Hillary to win democrats over Obama in New Hampshire, with all of Obama's margin of victory to come from independents and republicans who switched registration.
Will it work? 50/50. I'm not convinced. I'm coming to the realization that Hillary may simply not be the candidate for the times. Too much baggage from the 1990's. That unlike 1984 and Hart, Obama is a very well funded insurgent with almost a cult following among the younger generation. The primaries are much more compressed this time and the media is downright hostile to Hillary with a lot of mysogonistic undertones.
Anyway, I thought people might be interested in refreshing their memories on the 1984 race. There are a lot of similarities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election...
Colorado Senator Gary Hart was a more serious threat to Mondale, and after winning several early primaries it looked as if he might take the nomination away from Mondale. Hart criticized Mondale as an "old-fashioned" New Deal Democrat who symbolized "failed policies" of the past. Hart positioned himself as a younger, fresher, and more moderate Democrat who could appeal to younger voters. He emerged as a formidable candidate, winning the key New Hampshire, Ohio, and California primaries as well as several others, especially in the West. However, Hart couldn't overcome Mondale's financial and organizational advantages, especially among labor union leaders in the Midwest and industrial Northeast.
Hart was also badly hurt when Mondale, in a televised debate with Hart during the primaries, used a popular television commercial slogan to ridicule Hart's vague "New Ideas" platform. Turning to Hart on camera, Mondale told Hart that whenever he heard Hart talk about his "New Ideas", he was reminded of the Wendy's fast-food slogan "Where's the beef?". The remark drew loud laughter and applause from the viewing audience and caught Hart off-guard. Hart never fully recovered from Mondale's charge that his "New Ideas" were shallow and lacking in specifics. Earlier in the same Democratic primary debate in which Walter Mondale referred to the Wendy's fast food tagline "Where's the beef?" in criticizing Gary Hart's policies, Hart committed a serious faux pas that largely went underreported. Asked what he would do if an unidentified airplane flew over the Iron Curtain from a Warsaw Pact nation, Hart replied that he'd send up a United States Air Force plane up and instruct them to determine whether or not it was an enemy plane by looking in the cockpit window to see if the pilots were wearing uniforms.
Fellow candidate John Glenn, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot, replied that this was physically impossible. At a roundtable debate between the three remaining Democratic candidates moderated by Phil Donahue, Mondale and Hart got in such a heated argument over the issue of U.S. policy in Central America that Jesse Jackson had to tap his water glass on the table to get them to simmer down. Mondale gradually pulled away from Hart in the delegate count, and by the time the Democratic Convention started in San Francisco Mondale had more than enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination.
The cult mentality of the Obama supporters, who really are idiots, is very disturbing. How in the world can people be that dumb to be easily swayed by a media-created huckster and very likely a ringer?
