None of the Democratic seats is in real jeopardy unless Roland Burris chooses to run for reelection. If he demurs, the Illinois seat will certainly remain Democratic. The only other seats even in remote jeopardy are those held by Christopher Dodd and Harry Reid, and I don't foresee much trouble winning either unless the political climate undergoes a sea change between now and election day in 2010. Ted Kaufman, Joe Biden's replacement in Delaware, will be retiring, but that seat is a mortal lock to remain in Democratic hands. Kirsten Gillibrand, Hillary Clinton's replacement in New York, may face a serious primary challenge but the winner is highly likely to retain the seat for the Democrats.
On the other hand, the Republicans have trouble on several fronts. Judd Gregg's announcement today that he will not run for reelection (my mind is racing in speculation about what this might be about) is almost certain to result in a Democratic pick-up. Kit Bond is in terrible trouble in Missouri, and assuming his opponent will be Robin Carnahan this is virtually assured to be a pick-up. If Jim Bunning runs again, and he has made no moves indicating retirement, he will almost certainly be defeated in Kentucky -- there are two very popular Democrats contending for the right to cherry-pick this seat. Mel Martinez' retirement puts Florida's seat up for grabs, although if Charlie Crist runs it is likely he will retain it for the Republicans, if he retains his current party affiliation, which may be in some doubt. George Voinovich's retirement gives us a very real shot at increasingly Democratic Ohio's open seat. In Pennsylvania, our candidate, Joe Torsella, is almost certain to defeat Arlen "Single Bullet" Specter this time out. And Louisiana gives us the delicious prospect of running against David Vitter.
This is a PROBABLE pick-up of six, maybe seven, Senate seats, and some of the Republican seats generally thought of as safe may not turn out to be all that safe, particularly if Obama turns out as popular as he might. Richard Burr in North Carolina and John Thune in North Dakota may have some trouble. McCain might very well retire, and Arizona has been trending Democratic. Even Chuck Grassley might find himself in a fight.
This is SERIOUS trouble for Republicans. If things break right, and that seems the likeliest outcome, we could possibly have seventy Democratic Senators in the next Congress. This would make me very happy indeed!
Let's hope. As it stands, the GOP has a death wish, as their moronic opposition to the stimulus bill attests.
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