It May Be Too Soon

to put California same-sex marriage to a vote next year. It probably has even less chance of passage than Proposition 8 had of approval:

The 4-point margin of victory for Proposition 8 was 18 points narrower than the last time voters considered the issue in 2000, suggesting Californians are becoming less hostile to the idea over time. But the political climate in 2010 is not likely to be substantially more favorable to gay marriage than it was in November, when a popular young Democratic presidential nominee pulled large numbers of younger voters — a group more likely to support same-sex marriage than older voters — to the polls.

And when same-sex marriage inevitably returns to the ballot, there will be new obstacles advocates did not face in 2008. Historically, it's much easier to get Californians to vote "No" on an initiative than to get them to vote affirmatively. Same-sex marriage forces were seeking a "No" vote in 2008, and lost. Next time, California voters will have to vote affirmatively to create rights.

No state has yet voted in a general election to bestow same-sex marriage rights where they did not already exist. Arizona had the first — and to date, only — statewide vote to defeat a proposed ban on same-sex marriage in 2006, but Arizona voters reversed themselves in November and enacted a ban.