Nevada Polls

The most recent Nevada polls are all over the map, with Obama having a 5-point lead in the RGJ poll with moe of 4 percent, and AP showing a 12-point lead, which frankly I don't believe at all.

Note this:

The Research 2000 poll, conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 28, is the third sponsored by a major Nevada newspaper to show Obama with a stable lead. The margin of error is 4 percent.

That said, the data has been all over the map in Nevada in the final days of the campaign. The Associated Press released a poll today that has Obama with a 12-point lead in Nevada. An Oct. 20 Zogby poll had McCain up by 7 points and a Politico poll on Oct. 19 had the race dead even at 47 percent. While most are within the margin of error, the fact the numbers are so erratic suggests difficulty in locking down a sample that will reflect the actual turnout on Election Day. That's always a challenge for pollsters. Even more so this year.

The AP poll is clearly an outlier. It's tight here. If Obama were really that far ahead, he wouldn't have been out here last weekend.

Proof Obama ISN'T ahead in Nevada by 12 points: He will be in Henderson on Saturday.

And if he didn't have so much money to squander and the economy weren't in a mess, Obama wouldn't be anywhere near McCain in the polls. From the time Edwards was forced out, it was ALWAYS McCain's election to lose. The Democrats were basically finished getting the White House at that point, before the economy went south, and the Clinton/Obama infighting didn't help matters.

Sure, there may be a "Bradley" effect on the final totals, which is why people who support Obama should be concerned. Obama should be 20-30 points ahead, not barely ahead. But there are also many Democrats who aren't bothering to vote for Obama because of the way the primaries were run and settled. But if Obama loses, don't expect the talking heads to tell you that.

Nevada Polls

It's tighter than a bull's ass during fly season here, with Obama basically statistically tied with McCain, 47 percent to 45 percent.

Political Polls

For the first time, Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain past the margin of error in Nevada.

Just awhile back, McCain was solidly ahead. Of course the economy tanking has everything to do with Obama's improving fortunes.

Opinion Polls

Somebody screwed up with the AA and Hispanic figures clearly.

Still, Nevada's figures aren't good for Obama, although they are neck-and-neck here.

The new Quinnipiac poll shows things are slightly better for Obama.

The tragedy is ANY Democrat should be fifteen or twenty points ahead. We're screwed.

Nevada Opinion Polls

While 15 percent of those polled are still undecided about the presidential contest, John McCain is now leading Obama outside the margin of error in the Silver State, 46 percent to 39 percent.

It's going to get much worse. I will not be surprised if Obama and Biden ignore Nevada in the final month or so of the general election campaign when they determine it can't be won.

Romney as running mate for McCain will virtually lock this state for the GOP and probably the general election as well. Nevada has always picked the winner of the election since 1964.