Showing posts with label political opinion polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political opinion polls. Show all posts
Political Opinion Polls
This map shows results from opinion polls by Mason-Dixon and NBC and shows this race is REALLY a toss-up. Almost all of the battleground states are within margins of error.
When it comes to Nevada, I repeat my complaint Obama's campaign should have had surrogates right up to the end as John Kerry did. When Kerry did that, Bush and Cheney, their wives, and other surrogates followed suit right up to the end.
I think it is a big mistake on the part of Obama's campaign. Either they miscalculated, they feel they didn't need Nevada, or their internal polls show they can't win it.
The undecideds are the ones holding the key.
Another map one can play around with is here.
Opinion Polls
The polls are all over the map, with this one showing Obama ahead by just one point in battleground states and three points overall, while the NYT/CBS one shows Obama with an 11-point lead, which frankly isn't very believable.
Political Opinion Polls
Yet another poll is showing the race tightening, with this one showing Obama with only a two-point lead.
The actual report is here.
At this point, I still maintain McCain will pull this one out. I know that's against the CW, but I feel it in my gut that when it's all over, people will pick experience over risk, no matter how damned risky the experienced one is.
And of course people will talk about the so-called "Bradley effect" regarding racial attitudes in voting should Obama lose.
Obama for a variety of reasons is a truly weak candidate. How the Democrats could have fucked it up and allowed the media and the corporate elite to tell the party who to pick against all common sense is a mystery.
But if the Democrats lose, that'll help clear the path for a much better candidate in 2012 to go up against the beatable Sarah Palin. It'll also give the GOP even more rope to hang themselves with McCain's inaction ala Herbert Hoover.
The actual report is here.
At this point, I still maintain McCain will pull this one out. I know that's against the CW, but I feel it in my gut that when it's all over, people will pick experience over risk, no matter how damned risky the experienced one is.
And of course people will talk about the so-called "Bradley effect" regarding racial attitudes in voting should Obama lose.
Obama for a variety of reasons is a truly weak candidate. How the Democrats could have fucked it up and allowed the media and the corporate elite to tell the party who to pick against all common sense is a mystery.
But if the Democrats lose, that'll help clear the path for a much better candidate in 2012 to go up against the beatable Sarah Palin. It'll also give the GOP even more rope to hang themselves with McCain's inaction ala Herbert Hoover.
Opinion Polls
This one from AP says it is dead even between Obama and McCain.
The notion Obama will win in a landslide is simply ludicrous. Remember, Obama has had to spend FAR more money than McCain just to stay even. He was by far the weakest candidate of the original six major Democratic contenders of the 2008 campaign to go up against the Republicans.
It'll hinge on Ohio, as I've said.
Just think, economy notwithstanding, if Obama had kept his promise to stay on public financing. He'd be way behind like he should have been all along.
_____
The notion Obama will win in a landslide is simply ludicrous. Remember, Obama has had to spend FAR more money than McCain just to stay even. He was by far the weakest candidate of the original six major Democratic contenders of the 2008 campaign to go up against the Republicans.
It'll hinge on Ohio, as I've said.
Just think, economy notwithstanding, if Obama had kept his promise to stay on public financing. He'd be way behind like he should have been all along.
_____
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