Democrats

rightly worry about their chances of unseating Bush next year. He has the incumbency he stole from Al Gore, he has the money from his fellow crony capitalists, he has the media on his side.

Making it worse is the fact there is no clear leader in the Democratic race, and thus the campaign could turn out dirty and divisive. Shades of 1972, with the possibility of Republican dirty tricks.

And it really is too soon to crown Dean or even Kerry as the nominee:

"Their two-way contest within a contest follows a remarkable surge this summer by Dr. Dean, a physician and former Vermont governor who was once viewed as little more than a one-issue maverick. It also speaks of a shortfall in Mr. Kerry's strategy of clearning the field by presenting himself as the inevitable choice of his party.

"But many Democrats [including yours truly] express reservations about both these New Englanders, and that is reflected in the failure of either to draw the institutional party support that typically rallies around a perceived winner. Some Democrats worry that Dr. Dean would prove an easy mark for Mr. Bush, given his liberal views and lack of any experience in foreign affairs; others warn that Mr. Kerry is an awkward public figure who has run a timorous campaign."

Kerry hasn't even formally announced and yet failing grades are given to his campaign. What a monumental fuck up it has been for the Democrats to have frontloaded the primaries so soon in the season. We've got this Anointed One shit. However, the reservations expressed are dead accurate because neither Dean or Kerry has anything to bring to a national ticket. They are geographically handicapped because New England is going to go Democratic anyway.

"At least three other Democratic candidates--Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina--have turned their attention to what has become a fight for third place. Their calculation is that Mr. Kerry or Dr. Dean will founder in the opening Democratic contests."

My theory is one will be knocked off (likely Dean) and the other severely weakened. That should set it up for John Edwards to take it all, provided he doesn't listen to the bullshit CW about him. The article does mention unnamed aides as saying Edwards will abandon his Senate seat and go all the way, which he should win.

It's a good thing Kerry adviser Jim Jordan isn't a gambling man or else he'd lose tremendously. He makes the absurd claim that either Dean or Kerry right now is 90 percent certain to get the nomination. The key words, though, are "right now," so maybe Jordan isn't getting too cocky.

However, it is not good Dean is "setting the tone" for this campaign. That gives the Rove gang the perfect chance to tarnish the eventual nominee, no matter who it ends up being.

The best thing the Democratic Party can do is knock the good doc on his insurgent ass and send him packing back to Vermont.